Introduction

The IWMI Global Policy Dialogue Model (PODIUM) is a interactive policy planning and scenario analysis tool which explores the trade-offs and future demands on water resources on a national scale. It is intended to foster dialog and stakeholder participation, and provide a basis for multi-sectoral planning and analysis. It is not intended to be used as a quantitatively reliable predictive tool, but is provided as an awareness raising exercise useful to explore the complex interactions of water scarcity, food security, and environment needs, in light of increasing populations and changing national diets.

The Model

The Policy Dialogue Model (PODIUM) has been developed by The International Water Management Institute (IWMI), as part of the World Water Council Vision 2025 exercise. It builds on earlier research on food and water demands by IWMI.

(Seckler et al, 1998. Water Supply and Demand 1990-2025: Scenarios and Issues, IWMI Research Report 19, International Water Management Institue, Colombo, Sri Lanka.)

The model computes current and future food and water demands for the year 2025, based on trends derived from FAO statistics (FAOSTAT) and user definable scenarios of population growth, changing diets and improvements in agricultural productivity and/or water efficiency.

The model determines, at national scale, water demand by the various sectors , including agricultural, industrial and domestic uses and environmental requirements. Designed as an interactive tool, PODIUM helps users to explore the implications of policy options, allowing assumptions to be modified and alternative future scenarios to be evaluated. The model does not produce definitive predictions but rather enables analysis of "what-if" questions.

Use the model :http://podium.iwmi.org >>

The Technical Documentation Cereal Requirements Cereal Production Irrigation Water Requirement Domestic and industrial water use Summary

Screen shots of the Model: Cereal Requirements: Summary:

The Issues around the Model

Water Scarcity

Water scarcity is a relative concept describing the relationship between the demand for water and its availability. The demands may vary considerably between different countries and different regions within a given country depending on the sectoral usage of water. A country with a high industrial demand or which depends on large scale irrigation will therefore be more likely to experience times of scarcity than a country with similar climatic conditions without such demands. Countries such as Rwanda for example, would be classified by most standards as suffering water shortage but, because of low industrial and irrigation utilization, would not be classified as water scarce.

Food Security

Food security is caused by two major problems. The primary obstacle to food security is poverty; people living in poverty are faced with food insecurity. The second obstacle is: access to food. Despite the fact that globally we produce enough food to feed the whole world population, there are disparities in access to food and in nutritional well-being. Vulnerable groups are the most affected. These groups include: children, single parent women, elderly people, refugees, homeless persons and unemployed people. Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life (World Food Summit 1996).

Environment

Humans, as do all living organisms, depend on the natural world for vital nutrients, water, and shelter. Yet, humans have a greater capacity to alter their environment than other organisms. Humans have modified their environments since they first began clearing land for agriculture, and burning grasslands to hunt game. When populations were small and dispersed, the effect on the environment was limited and local. A larger population and an expanded agricultural and industrial capacity have increased human use of natural resources. The challenge of the twenty-first century is to meet the resource needs of a growing human population in ways that minimize costs to natural resources and living things.

Water Food and the Evironment Today

There is profound disagreement on how much water is needed to ensure food security, as well as provide prosperity to the world's growing population, and how much is needed to sustain natural ecosystems. This Global PODIUM Online Scenario and Analysis Tool is provide to help raise awareness, and to bring together planners, decision makers, and the agricultural and environmental communities to find ways of managing water to meet the needs of both.